On Wednesday, December 3, Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for the average London Metal Exchange (LME) copper price in the first half of 2026 from a previous estimate of $10,415 per ton to $10,710 per ton.
In a report, the bank stated, “Copper remains our top-pick industrial metal, as constrained mine supply growth and structural demand increases from power grids and electrical infrastructure are shifting the market from a surplus in 2025 toward balance in 2026.”
The report also noted that rising premiums outside the U.S. and conversations with physical traders indicate an unexpectedly accelerated flow of copper into the United States in the first half of 2026 ahead of potential tariff implementation, which should further tighten supply in markets outside the U.S.
LME three-month copper futures recently hit a record high of $11,434.50 per ton.
Goldman Sachs added that it expects LME aluminum prices to decline to $2,350 per ton by the fourth quarter of 2026, as current price levels are incentivizing producers—particularly in Indonesia—to ramp up output at a pace that could outstrip real demand growth.
“The automotive sector may shift from aluminum back to steel, adding downside risk to aluminum prices,” the report said.
It further pointed out that robust supply growth—primarily driven by Chinese overseas investments—is leading Goldman Sachs to adopt bearish forecasts for aluminum, lithium, and iron ore prices.
The bank projects that by the end of 2026, prices for aluminum, lithium, and iron ore will be down 18%, 23%, and 17%, respectively, from current spot levels.
