Geopolitical and trade policy changes are impacting the aluminium recycling industry in India. India is the world's second-largest aluminium producer, but it is highly dependent on imported aluminium scrap, with approximately 85% of its aluminium scrap demand coming from overseas. At the Global Commodities Conference held in Mumbai on August 12th, industry insiders called on secondary aluminium producers in India to rapidly expand their supply sources and increase inventory to cope with the supply risks brought about by the UAE's restrictions on scrap aluminium exports and the proposed policies in Europe. The past reliance on the "low inventory, low cost" procurement model may no longer be able to adapt to the new trade environment.
The UAE is an important source of aluminium scrap for India, and its export restrictions have affected the aluminium extrusion industry in India. Indian buyers may need to turn to markets such as the United States and Australia, but industry experts believe that it will be difficult to fully replace the original supply scale of the UAE in the short term. Data shows that in 2025, India accounted for 66% of the aluminium scrap exports from the UAE, and the trade ties between the two sides were highly close. If Gulf countries further regard scrap and recyclable materials as strategic resources and restrict exports, the difficulty of obtaining raw materials for India may continue to rise.
Europe also has the possibility of tightening scrap aluminium exports. The EU is considering measures including a 15% export tax to increase the regional recycling rate and promote decarbonization. In 2025, the EU exported approximately 1.3 million tons of aluminium scrap, with about 30% of it flowing to India. If Europe reduces exports, the global supply of tradable scrap aluminium will further shrink, and India will face simultaneous pressure from multiple traditional supply regions.
Therefore, industry insiders suggest that Indian enterprises expand their procurement channels from South America, Australia, etc., and strengthen long-term cooperation with suppliers. At the same time, enterprises should change their past strategy of solely pursuing price advantages, place supply security at a higher position, and consider maintaining an inventory equivalent to 3 to 3.5 months of demand. As countries compete for scrap resources and promote local recycling industries, scrap aluminium is gradually transforming from an ordinary industrial raw material to a strategic resource, and the competition in the global aluminium supply chain will further shift from "price competition" to "resource control".
