Morgan Stanley: Still bullish on aluminum prices. The bull market forecast for 2026 is $3,700 per ton.
March 4, 2026
Morgan Stanley analysts said that the conflict in the Middle East could bring further supply risks to the aluminum market. They stated, "This region is not only an important aluminum production area but also a significant aluminum shipping export location. It also relies on imported bauxite and alumina to maintain the operation of smelters." The region accounts for 9% of global aluminum production, but locally it only produces 9% of alumina and 1.2% of bauxite. Market observers said that although the possibility of a comprehensive supply shock is still not high, the more direct impact will come from logistics, freight costs, and insurance costs. The aluminum price on the London Metal Exchange (LME) dropped 0.5% in the early trading session to $3,168.50 per ton.
Morgan Stanley maintains its bullish outlook on aluminum prices, expecting a bull market scenario for aluminum prices in the fiscal year 2026, with an expected price of $3,700 per ton.
