On February 23rd, JPMorgan Chase released its latest research report, making predictions on the global aluminum market's supply and demand situation and price trends in 2026. The report stated that it is expected that there will be a supply gap of approximately 230,000 tons in the global aluminum market in 2026. Based on this, it predicted that the average price of aluminum in the second quarter of 2026 would be $3,200 per ton. At the same time, it believes that the aluminum price will still receive strong support in the second half of 2026.
It is worth noting that JPMorgan Chase made a similar tight supply judgment for the copper market on the same day. The report estimated that there would be a 130,000-ton supply gap in the global copper market in 2026, and predicted that the copper price would be $13,500 per ton in the second quarter and $13,000 per ton in the third quarter.
From a broader perspective, the demand structure of industrial metals such as copper and aluminum has undergone profound changes in recent years. Traditionally, the demand for these metals was mainly driven by the real estate cycle. However, with the acceleration of global data center construction, the upgrading of power infrastructure, and the expansion of the new energy industry, the sources of demand for copper and aluminum and other varieties have become increasingly diversified. In particular, the increase in power consumption due to the expansion of AI computing power, as well as the capacity construction driven by the "reindustrialization" process in various countries, are creating new structural demand increments for industrial metals.
On the supply side, the expansion of global electrolytic aluminum production is constrained by multiple factors such as energy costs and environmental policies. The release pace of new production capacity is relatively slow. At the same time, some resource-rich countries have strengthened local resource control by raising resource taxes and setting export quotas, further tightening the supply elasticity. This structural change in both supply and demand constitutes an important foundation for the medium- and long-term support of aluminum prices.
