According to foreign media reports, due to the conflict in the Middle East causing disruptions to major shipping routes, Japanese enterprises that are highly dependent on aluminum resources from the Middle East are now facing the predicament of reducing production and competing to find alternative supply sources.
The sectors most affected are automotive and component manufacturers, including Toyota and Denso (Denso Corporation). According to statistics, about 70% of the aluminum imported by Japanese automakers comes from the Middle East. Since the conflict broke out at the end of February, the price of aluminum has risen by approximately 13%.
Japan is at the forefront of a global aluminum shortage that is likely to persist for a long time. EGA of the United Arab Emirates predicts that it will take at least one year to resume full production. JPMorgan Chase analysts warned last week that the aluminum industry has fallen into a "black hole" and is difficult to extricate itself easily. Even if a peace agreement is reached and the Strait of Hormuz is reopened, shipping may still take several months to return to normal levels.
According to data from the Japanese Aluminum Association, in 2025, Japan will import approximately 590,000 tons of aluminum from the Middle East. Bloomberg Industry Research data shows that the United States imports more aluminum than Japan, but American companies will not face the risk of aluminum shortage because most of their aluminum supply comes from within the United States and Canada.
Masatoshi Nishimoto, an analyst from S&P Global, stated that Japan is the country most affected by the aluminum shortage. He also noted that Southeast Asia, China and South Korea are also among those facing "the greatest risks".
"Although it's only been one month, it's almost certain that we will soon encounter difficulties in the production of automotive components," Daiki Kato, the president of Goto Light Metal Industry Co., Ltd., said in an interview in late March. "We will be more cautious with our spending and conserve energy."
Kato Light Metal Company is headquartered in Aichi Prefecture and produces various aluminum products, mainly for the construction and automotive industries. The company imports approximately 400 tons of aluminum every month - about 200 tons from Dubai and about 200 tons from Australia. Although the supply of aluminum from the Middle East has stopped, the company stated that its inventory is sufficient to last until the end of May. After that, the company plans to purchase aluminum from a supplier in Southeast Asia.
On the other hand, in late March, Toyota supplier Denso and its affiliated companies stated that they had to reduce their monthly production by approximately 20,000 units, resulting in huge losses.
Even after the war ends, supply restrictions in the Middle East may persist for several months, as smelters need time to resume production and shipping companies are working hard to clear the bottlenecks caused by hundreds of ships stranded in the Persian Gulf.
Most companies in Japan usually keep a stockpile of approximately two months' worth of components or raw materials. This means that many companies may start to experience supply disruptions by the end of this month or in early May.
A spokesperson for Toyota declined to comment on the shortage of aluminum supplies or the impending shortage, but stated that they are closely monitoring the situation. Nissan said that the company is "taking appropriate measures, including adjusting production and logistics operations."
