Japan's aluminum premium for the fourth quarter was set at $86 per ton, with weak demand leading to a decline for the third consecutive quarter
October 28, 2025
According to sources directly involved in the pricing negotiations, the premium for aluminium ingots arriving in Japan in the fourth quarter of 2025 (October to December) was finally determined to be $86 per ton higher than the spot aluminium contract on the London Metal Exchange, a 20% drop from $108 in the third quarter. This is not only lower than the initial quote of $98 to $103 from producers, but also marks the third consecutive quarter of decline in the premium of Japanese aluminum, reflecting the harsh reality of persistently weak terminal demand.
As a major aluminium importer in Asia, Japan sets the benchmark for the entire Asian region with its quarterly agreed premium on primary aluminium (an increase over the cash price on the London Metal Exchange). The significant drop in this premium is a direct manifestation of the weakening of the market's supply and demand fundamentals. On the one hand, the increase in global macroeconomic uncertainty has dampened the vitality of the manufacturing industry. On the other hand, key aluminum-consuming industries in Japan, such as the automotive manufacturing and construction sectors, have performed below expectations, leading to a contraction in the demand for raw materials. Furthermore, on a global scale, especially the relatively abundant supply of aluminium in China, has alleviated market concerns over tight supply and weakened the support needed for premium pricing.
