Citibank noted that during LME Week, market participants generally held a cautious outlook on the prospects of industrial metals. The main concerns included weak economic growth, risks related to artificial intelligence, high energy prices, supply growth, and the unexpected nature of the US copper tariff policy.
Citibank pointed out that the uncertainty of the US tariff policy remains the greatest risk affecting copper market positions and prices. Before the clarity of the energy market trend and the US tariff policy, the bank maintains a neutral judgment on copper prices. Previously, tariff expectations had pushed US copper prices higher relative to London prices, but the policy outlook still remains uncertain, making it difficult for the market to form a clear direction.
Among the base metals, aluminum received the most pessimistic market sentiment. Participants were concerned that due to the rapid growth in supply from regions such as Indonesia, there might be a 1-2 million ton supply surplus in the global aluminum market in 2027, while the demand outlook was relatively flat, further increasing the downward pressure on prices.
However, Citibank still holds a relatively positive view on some metals. The bank expects that in the base metal scenario for the benchmark price over the next 6 to 12 months, it is likely to rise to $60,000 per ton, and in the optimistic scenario, it could reach $70,000 per ton. For nickel prices, if supply growth from Indonesia is restricted, a price below $16,000 per ton will provide a more attractive upside potential.
In addition, Citibank believes that the upcoming elections in the US and Israel may continue to suppress market sentiment in the metals sector; if the US and Iran can reach an agreement before the end of the year, the market outlook may turn optimistic.
As of 16:15 Greenwich Mean Time on Friday, the price of copper on the London Metal Exchange rose by 1.8% to $14,334 per ton; the price of aluminum rose by 1.2% to $3,044; the price of tin rose by 1.2% to $50,700.
