Internationally, in May, due to the surge in energy prices triggered by the conflict in the Middle East, the global economy faced overall pressure and growth slowed while inflation rebounded. From the global macro indicators, institutions such as the World Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered their forecast for global economic growth in 2026 to around 2.5%. Affected by the high prices of crude oil and other commodities, the global inflation decline trend was interrupted. In 2026, the global inflation expectation was raised to around 3.9%, and the risk of "stagflation" significantly increased. By region, the US economy showed certain resilience. In 2026, the US economic growth expectation remained at around 2.0%, but the inflation data exceeded expectations, with core PCE inflation remaining high, leading to a significant reduction in expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. In the EU, due to its heavy reliance on imported energy, the economy faced severe challenges. In April, the eurozone services PMI dropped to 47.6, falling below the threshold for expansion for the first time. Domestic demand was severely insufficient, and at the same time, inflation rebounded to 3.0%. The European Central Bank was caught in a policy dilemma of promoting growth and controlling inflation. In Asia, in May, Japan's macroeconomy operated under the dual influence of unexpected growth and intensified imported inflation; India was expected to remain one of the fastest-growing major economies, with a growth expectation of 6.4% in 2026. Overall, in May, the global macroeconomy, under the disturbance of the energy crisis and geopolitics, the downside risks significantly increased, and the policy regulatory space of central banks was further compressed.
Domestically, in May, the overall domestic macroeconomy maintained stable operation, but there was a certain degree of differentiation between the supply and demand sides, and the economic recovery momentum continued to exhibit a structural feature. From the PMI index, in May, the manufacturing PMI dropped to the critical value of 50.0%, down by 0.3 percentage points compared with the previous period, showing a slightly lower performance than market expectations. This was mainly due to the influence of the traditional off-season in May and the natural decline in demand after the release of previous demand. Both the production side and the demand side slowed down simultaneously, and the overall situation presented a feature of supply being strong while demand being weak. However, the PMI of high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing rose against the trend, showing the "K" type differentiation feature, and the transformation of new and old energy sources was continuing. In the non-manufacturing sector, driven by the hot tourism and travel activities during the "May Day" holiday, the service sector PMI rebounded to 50.3%, returning to the expansion range, and market activity increased. In terms of prices, in May, positive signals were presented. Affected by domestic capacity reduction and the increase in upstream raw materials such as crude oil prices, the year-on-year growth rate of PPI is expected to continue to rise to around 4.0%, and the normalization trend of inflation has emerged; in terms of CPI, pork prices remained stable and fresh vegetable prices declined, and it is expected to increase moderately to around 1.2% year-on-year. Overall, in May, the domestic economy demonstrated strong resilience in the off-season, and high-tech industries and the service sector became the supporting highlights. Currently, insufficient domestic demand remains the main contradiction, and subsequent efforts still need to be made through the coordinated efforts of fiscal and monetary policies to further boost consumption and investment confidence.
In the industrial sector, driven by the expansion of domestic industrial activities and the "Two New" and "Two Relics" policies, in May, the production of the non-ferrous metals industry maintained a stable overall growth, and the growth rate of fixed asset investment across the industry remained stable. Among them, the investment growth rate in the non-ferrous metal mining and processing industry was significantly higher; the investment in the smelting and rolling processing industry turned from decline to increase; the imports of copper concentrate and bauxite continued to increase, and the exports of unprocessed aluminum and aluminum products changed from decline to increase; the non-ferrous metal market showed a pattern of mostly rising, a few under pressure, and a month-long adjustment; among them, the price increases of tin, copper, and lithium carbonate were particularly prominent, while industrial silicon operated under pressure; the operating income and total profit of the规模以上 non-ferrous metal enterprises increased significantly year-on-year.
In terms of production, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the added value of the规模以上 non-ferrous metal industry increased by 1.6% year-on-year, which was 4.0 percentage points lower than the same period in 2025. Among them， from January to April， the added value of the non-ferrous metal mining and processing industry was 2.3%， and the added value of the smelting and rolling processing industry was 1.5%. In April， the industrial added value of non-ferrous metal enterprises decreased by 0.6% compared with the same period last year. Among them， the added value of the non-ferrous metal mining and processing industry increased by 0.8% compared with the same period last year， while the added value of the smelting and rolling processing industry decreased by 1.0% compared with the same period last year.
From January to April, the cumulative output of ten types of non-ferrous metals reached 27.447 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 3.3%. Among them, the output of refined copper was 5.037 million tons, up by 7.4% year-on-year, and the output of primary aluminum was 15.325 million tons, up by 3.5% year-on-year. The output of six types of mineral metals was 1.912 million tons, down by 4.8% year-on-year. Among them, the output of three metals, namely copper, lead and zinc, decreased by 3.8%, 4.2% and 4.2% respectively; the output of three other metals, namely nickel, tin and antimony, increased by 2.2%, 2.9% and 16.7% respectively.
In terms of investment, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to April, the fixed asset investment in the non-ferrous metals industry increased by 5.5% compared to the same period in 2025, which was 5.5 percentage points lower than the increase in fixed asset investment in the first quarter. The growth rate was 3.0 percentage points higher than the national industrial investment growth rate. Among them, the fixed asset investment in the non-ferrous metal mining and extraction industry increased by 40.5% compared to the same period last year, while the fixed asset investment in the non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry decreased by 0.9% compared to the same period last year.
In terms of import and export trade, the latest data from the General Administration of Customs shows that from January to April, the cumulative imports of copper ore and its concentrates reached 99.15 million tons, a decrease of 0.8% year-on-year. Among this, the import volume in April was 23.52 million tons, a decrease of 19.6% year-on-year. From January to April, the cumulative imports of unprocessed copper and copper products were 15.67 million tons, a decrease of 9.8% year-on-year. Among this, the import volume in April was 4.52 million tons, an increase of 3.2% year-on-year; from January to April, the cumulative exports of unprocessed aluminum and aluminum products were 20.53 million tons, an increase of 8.9%, among which the export volume in April was 5.98 million tons, an increase of 15.4% year-on-year.
In the market sector, in May, the global non-ferrous metal market exhibited a significant structural divergence. The battle between macroeconomic sentiment and fundamentals ran throughout the entire monthly trading period. From the international market perspective, the trading data of the London Metal Exchange (LME) revealed a fierce confrontation between the bulls and the bears. The prices of major commodities such as copper, aluminum, zinc, and tin all showed significant increases. Among them, the price of tin performed the most outstandingly, with a single-month closing price increase of 6,204 US dollars, ranking first in terms of the highest increase. This indicates the strong resilience of demand from the new energy and electronic industries. However, the nickel price fell by 406 US dollars against the trend, becoming the "dragging item" in the sector. This might be related to the continuous release of nickel iron production capacity in Indonesia and the expectation of oversupply. It is worth noting that the LME copper price reached a high of 14,196.5 US dollars, although it fell back to 13,636 US dollars at the end of the month, the monthly fluctuation was huge, reflecting the complex expectations of the market regarding economic recession and industrial demand in the context of high inflation.
In the domestic market, the trend of the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) was largely in line with that of the LME, but the fluctuations were more intense. The main contract of copper on the Shanghai Futures Exchange reached an astonishing high of 108,900 yuan in May, although it eventually closed lower. However, the entire month still saw a 3,280-yuan increase. The market sentiment was extremely excited. In contrast, the performance of aluminum was relatively weak. The price of aluminum on the Shanghai Futures Exchange dropped by 450 yuan compared to April, indicating that the traditional downstream demand such as real estate recovery was not as expected, which had a negative impact. The performance of the spot market further confirmed the "leading indicator" role of the futures market. The average monthly increase in copper prices in major circulation areas such as the Yangtze River spot market and Guangdong spot market exceeded 4%. The high spot premiums indicated that there was a strong demand for replenishing stocks by the downstream sector, and the market supply remained tight at a high level. Overall, in May, the有色金属 market fluctuated between "strong expectations" and "weak reality"， with intense capital games. It is expected that as the policy direction of the Federal Reserve becomes clearer， market fluctuations may continue.
In terms of benefits, the operating income and total profit of large-scale non-ferrous metal enterprises have increased significantly. From January to April, 12,313 large-scale non-ferrous metal industrial enterprises achieved an operating income of 3,821.55 billion yuan, up by 24.2% year-on-year, and the profit was 268.59 billion yuan, up by 111.2% year-on-year, narrowing by 2.9 percentage points compared to the first quarter. Among them, independent mining enterprises achieved a profit of 71.46 billion yuan, up by 94.9% year-on-year; smelting enterprises achieved a profit of 163.44 billion yuan, up by 121.4% year-on-year; processing enterprises achieved a profit of 33.69 billion yuan, up by 102.2% year-on-year.
Overall, in the recent period, the domestic non-ferrous metal industry has maintained a stable operation, with production growing steadily and industry investment continuing to increase. The overall import and export trade has been stable. However, due to geopolitical factors such as the conflict between the United States and Iran, the price trends of various non-ferrous metal products have significantly diverged. The overall profit level of the industry has continued to improve, and the export structure has shown differentiated characteristics. With the continuous implementation of the "four-stability" policies in China, such as stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, various consumption-boosting measures have gradually taken effect, and the effective market demand will be further released. The non-ferrous metal industry is expected to maintain a stable growth trend in the future. At the same time, it should be noted that the non-ferrous metal industry still faces multiple challenges at present. In the market, the prices of some metals have fluctuated sharply. For example, the average price of tin in May exceeded 420,000 yuan, and it continued to rise rapidly in June, even reaching 440,000 yuan. Such "roller-coaster" market conditions are very likely to cause downstream processing enterprises to face huge pressure on raw material costs, resulting in squeezing the profit space of the manufacturing industry and intensifying the business risks of enterprises. In terms of supply chain security, the situation of high dependence on foreign mineral resources has not been fundamentally changed. The cumulative import of copper ore and its concentrates decreased by 0.8% in May, and combined with geopolitical games, the difficulty and cost of obtaining key mineral resources overseas have both risen, making the situation of resource supply guarantee still severe. In addition, investment in smelting and rolling processing industries decreased by 0.9%, reflecting that enterprises are becoming more cautious about expansion due to high costs and market uncertainties. This may impose certain constraints on the subsequent acceleration of industrial upgrading.
