ANZ Bank stated in a report that it expects supply risks in the Middle East to push aluminum prices above $3,000 per ton in early 2023.
The report says that the recovery of production in the Middle East, the resilience of production in China, and the strong growth in supply from Indonesia should narrow the supply gap in the aluminum market this year and drive the market to become surplus by 2027.
The ongoing supply risks in the Middle East may keep prices volatile until early 2027 and maintain them above $3,000 per ton.
The report also predicts that aluminum demand will increase by 2.5%-2.7% in 2027, reaching 77.5 million tons.
The report says that global aluminum production is expected to remain stable in 2026, but the expected increase in 2027 is expected to exceed 4%, reaching 77.8 million tons.
It is expected that Indonesia's aluminum production will be 709,000 tons in 2026 and 1.3 million tons in 2027, rising further to 2.9 million tons by 2030.
The report says that the previous estimate of production losses in the Middle East was 3 million - 3.5 million tons, but improved operation rates should limit the annual loss to within 2 million tons.
The report also predicts that China's aluminum production in 2027 will be 45.4 million tons, meaning that the growth in production will slow significantly.
